Properly
distinguishing between retracements and reversals can reduce the number of
losing trades and even set you up with some winning trades.
Classifying
a price movement as a retracement or a reversal is very important. It's up
there with paying taxes *cough*.
There are
several key differences in distinguishing a temporary price change retracement
from a long-term trend reversal. Here they are:
Identifying
Retracements
A popular
way to identify retracements is to use Fibonacci levels.
For the
most part, price retracements hang around the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement levels before continuing the overall trend.
If price
goes beyond these levels, it may signal that a reversal is happening. Notice
how we didn't say will. As you may have figured out by now, technical analysis
isn't an exact science, which means nothing certain... especially in forex
markets.
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