My analysis (last)

Possible  scenario next week..maybe

My position EURJPY

I'd trailing stop all my position @ below today low 128.00. Half of my position already put Take Profit (TP) at 130. The rest will closing manually. Ride until trend really change or the barrier 131. I didn't t like this pattern on current price. I'll prepare another turning point Bearish trend continuation on weekly chart if i'm smell something.

** Maybe I'll not provide turning point Bearish trend. As I'm state before, i'm only show my analysis for studying for someone who interested. TQ

### Update 11.32 p.m Already hit my trailing stop. RO 21%. End riding bull trend. I'm preparing another bearish continuation next week.

Current Position EURJPY 21th June 2013

Yesterday position already move to BE before sleep.

Not adding any position after this..Still looking the barrier..

My Analysis EURJPY 20th June 2013

Yesterday position succeed according to the plan. Already BE ++ and now adding new position still target the barrier around 131. A little bit risk position to entry here cause price already make move about 3/4 movement. So I'm adjusting the risk little bit small.

My Analysis 19th June 1013

As I'm expected, price reject yesterday "temporary barrier" and now I'm adding new buy position at 50% yesterday daily retracement.

My Analysis EURJPY 18hb June 2013

I'd entry manual..adding new position.Already (BE) break even point..Now I'm watching "temporary barrier" to see price break the barrier (closing price above the resistance"). If succeed, I'm holding this position. If not, i'll closing.

My Analysis 14 June 2013

My PO buy already triggered. Yesterday daily closing above the resistance that i mark. Let see how this thing going work.

Remark : Barrier 131 need to break.

My Analysis EURYPY 14 June 2013 12.00 a.m

Still not trigger my PO. It just make a new low again. Already change  SL, Position and Lot size. This time, I'm reducing the Risk 1% & 2% due to high volatility market.

I'll change my point view until market tell to certain "point" that I'm wrong.

My Analysis EURJPY 13 June 2013

My buy stop yesterday had been trigger and got stop out..I realized yesterday high is 50% retracement of Tuesday move. Although i can move to break even point, but i don't. Doesn't matter at all. Yesterday just a history and a lesson. Not hurt at all.

This morning i'd do some PO Buy. Here's the chart. 

But now i'd changed Lot size and Stop Loss (SL) due the price make new low.  Now more risk and reward due multiple position. But I had decrease the volume size. Please try this at home..jk

I'm sticking to my plan as yesterday analysis. The reason i make PO buy around there that I need to see price closing above the support (Double Bottom). I'm still see the chart just make a bubble/Distribution (testing supply) in current Intermediate Trend as Wyckoff noted that tops and bottoms were different. Market tops were often long draw out affairs, while market bottoms were relatively short violent beasts.

Let see how this gonna to work. Time will tell..

EURJPY 12 June 2013

My analysis EURJPY pair: I'm spotting G? might be turning point to major uptrend. But, there is a barrier around 131.xx need to break. If the barrier break, the target point around 133.xx. Im already make Pending Order (PO) Buy @ xxxx with SL xxxx ( with R:R 1:1 if barrier not break and R:R 1:2 if barrier break) with Risk 5% of equity.

Remark : In order to validate these turning point,G point must not break F point. These entry is breakout type middle turning point. Not the "real" bottom.

For information, this type entry is NOT the entry breakout like Turtles do. You can look what i mean "middle" @ http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:wyckoff_market_analy


There is a way to take real bottom/top using combination of TF (timeframes), PA (price action), chart pattern and  spotting swing hi/lo when it started. But not at all time can use this type entry. Its depend on what market provide. All of these are the type of entry to take the top and the bottom.

And I'm not always show my analysis to public due some reason. There are some reason why I'm doing it today. Figure "what, why, how, when, where". Hope it will be valuable to someone. I think it is more easier to figure it out. I'd trough more pain to figure out what my idol "see when he looked at the chart", what trading system and etc he using by ONLY his speech nothing more.

Studies in Tape Reading

Here's some good reading stuff..

http://www.beursplaza.com/ebook6.pdf

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:wyckoff_market_analy

type entry take the top and the bottom.

I've combined this theory method with the other market behavior principal that works for me. I'm using it for several years. The combination performs a powerful method to forecast the market when and where market to decide it will go from short-term trend to intermediate trend. With this, I believe someone can trade anywhere, any platform because it is just the same thing. It will take years to understand it. I had been through it the pain and the gain to master it. Until now I'm still learning new ideas from the combination of these methods. Mechanical forecasting will never take place of an intelligent mind. The rewards will be given those who hard work to study this method. It's not for the weaker one.

Tape Reading

Sometimes it is nice to reexamine a simple concept when there appears to be overwhelming volatility in the markets. Mechanical systems and patterns are helpful and even necessary for the structure they impose in organizing data, but even Richard Dennis in his original course discussed ways to “anticipate” entry signals, exit trades early, and filter out “bad” trades.

Learn to follow the market’s price action and read the signals it gives. This can become a strict discipline in itself and the result will be greater confidence that a trade is or is not working.

Tape Reading

“Trading technique is simply the ability, through study, observation, and experience, to recognize the signals in each of the several phases of market movement.”
- George Douglas Taylor

Tape reading long ago referred to the practice of studying an old-fashioned ticker tape and monitoring prices, volume, and fluctuations in order to predict the immediate trend. (It does not mean you have to have the ability to read the prices scrolling across the bottom of the screen on CNBC!) Tape reading is nothing more than monitoring the current price action and asking: Is the price going up or down right now? It has nothing to do with technical analysis and everything to do with keeping an open mind.

Even the most novice observer has the ability to see that prices are moving higher or lower at any particular moment or, for that matter, when prices seem to be going nowhere or sideways. (Markets do not always have to be going somewhere!) It is also fairly easy to watch a price go up and then tell when it stops going up – even if it turns out to be only a momentary pause.

I’ve known hundreds of professional traders throughout my career. I don’t want to disappoint you, but I know of only two who were able to make a steady living for themselves with a mechanical system. (I am not counting the well-capitalized CTA’s who are running a money-management program with “OPM” – other people’s money.) All those other traders used some type of discretion that invariably involved watching the price action at some moment – even if just to move a stop up or down.

If you can learn to follow the price action, you will be two steps ahead of the game because price is faster than any derivative. You may have heard the saying, “The only truth is the current PRICE.” Your job as a trader will become ten times easier once you accept this. This means ignoring news, opinions, and personal biases.

Watching price action can actually be very confusing if you go about it like a ship without her sails up in an ocean squall. You will get tossed back and forth with no sense of direction and no sense of purpose. There are two main tricks to monitoring price action. The first is to watch the price relative to another “reference point.” This is why many traders use a “pivot point” – and it works! It is the easiest way to tell if the market is moving closer to or further away from a particular point. This is also why it is often easier to get a “feel” for the market once you put a position on – your “reference” point tends to be your entry price.

Some reference points, such as a swing high or the day’s opening price, will have much more significance than those points involving some type of calculation. (Some numbers might have special meaning for those who calculate them, and who am I to argue if they work.) I like to concentrate on pivot points that the whole market can see. To sum up so far, when watching price, we want to know the following: how fast, how far, and in which direction. It takes two points to measure these things. One will always be the current price, the other a pivot point.

* Do not watch price for the sake of watching price. Watch price with the intent to do something or to anticipate a certain response!

Responses

“The study of responses … is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the market.”
- Rollo Tape (Richard Wyckoff), 1910

Position Size and Risk Management

In my career as a trader, I have Never seen anyone who applying the position size and risk management in correct size position and Stop Loss. Most of them just show the entry, technic, small equity gain large % ROI just want to make the others impressed with them. hahaha sound childish. In the long run, they Are just a trash or loser. Even some of them are famous or call genius from the Forum  or FB (Facebooking) lol does not apply this basic theory. I never make them as my inspiration because there are just famous in certain places. Not knowing of the world history itself. Is this guy you all ever want to follow? Use your brain. Don’t simply follow others because what they are doing, you want to do the same thing. Don't be idiotic. They just make you a loser again and again and again. Does not help at all.

Some of you might know this but the question is, how to put and Calculate exactly the position size and where exactly the Stop Loss should it be. Because, we often read and hear, no risk 2% bla bla bla bla bla.. If you are scalper mostly you will be wiped out in no time even using good money management. Seriously. But there is a way to avoid this. Maybe later I will be able to write about this.

I don’t want to give a specific answer whom have these questions. How to put and Calculate exactly the position size and where exactly the Stop Loss should it be.  Because it is your homework. And my advice and experienced is worth more than jewel and gold. Just kidding. Actually it depends on yourself. Your comfort level. And combine with the other strategy / method. If you carefully  observe on your chart. There is a specific place that price unable to get if you put it "there". But sometimes it can be hit also. Because we are just human. Nothing perfect.

Drawdown effects

Size of draw-down on initial capital    Percent gain to recover


                          5%                         5.3%
                         10%                       11.1%
                         15%                       17.6%
                         20%                       25.0%
                         25%                       33.3%
                         30%                       42.9%
                         40%                       66.7%
                         50%                       100 %
                         60%                       150 %
                         70%                       233 %
                         80%                       400 %
                         90%                      1000 %

 Everything you need to know is right there in Front of you.

- Jesse Livermore 

The most important rule of trading is to play good defense, Not great offense. - Paul Tudor Jones 

Invincibility lies in the defense the possibility of victory in the attack

To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

- Sun Tzu Art Of War

Here some good articles worth to read http://www.trade2win.com/articles/1476-position-sizing-approach-risk-management

Position Size and Risk Management are the more important thing that everyone should know to make money by trading for a living in the long run.

The above quotes is my inspiration people who already know by the history world itself. These people that you should make them as inpiration not the "trash". IMHO