The main
focus of this article is to guide you through the process of developing your
system. While it doesn't take long to come up with a system, it does take some
time to extensively test it. So be patient; in the long run, a good system can
potentially make you a lot of money.
Step 1:
Time Frame
The first
thing you need to decide when creating your system is what kind of trader you
are.
Are you a
day trader or a swing trader? Do you like looking at charts every day, every
week, every month, or even every year? How long do you want to hold on to your
positions?
This will
help determine which time frame you will use to trade. Even though you will
still look at multiple time frames, this will be the main time frame you will
use when looking for a trade signal.
Step 2:
Find indicators that help identify a new trend.
Since one
of our goals is to identify trends as early as possible, we should use
indicators that can accomplish this. Moving averages are one of the most popular
indicators that traders use to help them identify a trend.
Specifically,
they will use two moving averages (one slow and one fast) and wait until the
fast one crosses over or under the slow one. This is the basis for what's known
as a "moving average crossover" system.
In its
simplest form, moving average crossovers are the fastest ways to identify new
trends. It is also the easiest way to spot a new trend.
Of course
there are many other ways traders' spot trends, but moving averages are one of
the easiest to use.
Step 3:
Find indicators that help CONFIRM the trend.
Our second
goal for our system is to have the ability to avoid whipsaws, meaning that we
don't want to be caught in a "false" trend. The way we do this is by
making sure that when we see a signal for a new trend, we can confirm it by
using other indicators.
There are
many good indicators for confirming trends, likes MACD, Stochastic, Parabolic and RSI. As
you become more familiar with various indicators, you will find ones that you
prefer over others, and can incorporate those into your system. Parabolic Sar also can confirm the trend.
Step 4:
Define Your Risk
When
developing your system, it is very important that you define how much you are
willing to lose on each trade. Not many people like to talk about losing, but
in actuality, a good trader thinks about what he or she could potentially lose
BEFORE thinking about how much he or she can win.
The amount
you are willing to lose will be different than everyone else. You have to
decide how much room is enough to give your trade some breathing space, but at
the same time, not risk too much on one trade. You'll learn more about money
management in a later lesson. Money management plays a big role in how much you
should risk in a single trade.
Step 5:
Define Entries & Exits
Once you
define how much you are willing to lose on a trade, your next step is to find
out where you will enter and exit a trade in order to get the most profit.
Some people
like to enter as soon as all of their indicators match up and give a good
signal, even if the candle hasn't closed. Others like to wait until the close
of the candle.
For exits,
you have a few different options. One way is to trail your stop, meaning that
if the price moves in your favor by 'X' amount, you move your stop by 'X'
amount.
Another way
to exit is to have a set target, and exit when the price hits that target. How
you calculate your target is up to you. Some people choose support and
resistance levels as their targets.
Others just
choose to go for the same amount of pips on every trade. However you decide to
calculate your target, just make sure you stick with it. Never exit early no
matter what happens. Stick to your system! After all, YOU developed it!
One more
way you can exit is to have a set of criteria that, when met, would signal you
to exit. For example, you could make it a rule that if your indicators happen
to reverse to a certain level, you would then exit out of the trade.
Step 6:
Write down your system rules and FOLLOW IT!
This is the
most important step of creating your trading system. You MUST write your
trading system rules down and ALWAYS follow it.
Discipline
is one of the most important characteristics a trader must have, so you must
always remember to stick to your system! No system will ever work for you if
you don't stick to the rules, so remember to be disciplined.
How to Test Your Trading System
The fastest way to test your system is to find a charting software
package where you can go back in time and move the chart forward one candle at
a time. When you move your chart forward one candle at a time, you can follow
your trading system rules and take your trades accordingly.
Record your trading record, and BE HONEST with yourself! Record your
wins, losses, average win, and average loss. If you are happy with your results
then you can go on to the next stage of testing: trading live on a demo
account.
Trade your new system live on a demo account for at least two months.
This will give you a feel for how you can trade your system when the market is
moving. Trust us, it is very different trading live than when you're
backtesting.
After two months of trading live on a demo account, you will see if your
system can truly stand its ground in the market. If you are still getting good
results, then you can choose to trade your system live on a REAL account.
At this point, you should feel very confident with your system and feel
comfortable taking trades with no hesitation.
YOU'VE MADE IT!
The most
important thing is discipline. We can't stress it enough. Well, yes we can.
YOU MUST
ALWAYS STICK TO YOUR TRADING SYSTEM RULES!
If you have
tested your system thoroughly through back testing and by trading it live on a
demo for at least 2 months, then you should feel confident enough to know that
as long as you follow your rules, you will end up profitable in the long run.
Trust your
system and trust yourself!
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