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Showing posts with label Psychology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Psychology. Show all posts

Thursday, February 28, 2013

The Mental Aspect of Trading



Many traders quickly come to acknowledge that despite being familiar with winning strategies, systems, and money management techniques, trading success is dependent on your psychological state of mind. If you’re a trader just starting out, where do you find the initial confidence to pull the trigger? How do you deal with the down times without digging yourself deeper into the hole? If you are in a hole, how do you work your way back out? How do experienced traders push through the ceiling of profitability that caps their initial trading years and make a truly fabulous living?
Trading is a performance-oriented discipline. Stress and mental pressures can affect your ability to function and impact your bottom line. Much of what has been learned about achieving peak performance in both business and sports can be applied to trading. But before looking at some of these factors, let’s first examine the ways that trading differs from other businesses.


  1. Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader. Success is not a function of how smart you are or how much you have applied yourself academically. This is hard to accept in a society that puts a premium on intellect.
  1. There is no customer or client good will built up each day in your business. Customer relationships, traditionally important in American businesses, have little to do with a trader’s profitability. Each day is a clean slate.
  1. The traditionally 8-5 work ethic doesn’t apply in this business! A trader could sit in front of a screen all day waiting for a recognizable pattern to occur and have nothing happen. There is a temptation to take marginal trades just so a trader can feel like he’s doing something. There’s also the dilemma of putting in constant hours of research, having nothing to show for it, and not getting paid for the work done. Yet if a trader works too hard, he risks burn- out. And what about those months where 19 out of 20 days are profitable, but the trader gives it all back in one or two bad days? How can a trader account for his productivity in these situations?
  1. If you were to invest time, energy, and emotion into developing a business venture and backed out at the last minute, it would be considered a failure. However, you should be able to invest time and energy into researching a trading idea, and yet still be able to change your mind at the last minute. Market conditions change, and we cannot be expected to predict all the variables with foresight. Getting out of a bad trade with only a small loss should be considered a big success!
  1. What IS the definition of a successful trader? He should feel good about himself and enjoy playing the game. You can make a few small trades a year as a hobby, generate some very modest profits, and be quite successful because you had fun. There are also aggressive traders who have had big years, but ultimately blow-out, ruin their health or lead miserable lives from all the stress they put themselves under.

Principles of Peak Performance
The first principle of peak performance is to put fun and passion first. Get the performance pressures out of your head. Forget about statistics, percentage returns, win/loss ratios, etc. Floor-traders scratch dozens of trades during the course of a day, but all that matters is whether they’re up at the end of the month.
Don’t think about TRYING to win the game – that goes for any sport or performance-oriented discipline. Stay involved in the process, the technique, the moment, the proverbial here and now.! A trader must concentrate on the present price action of the market. A good analogy is a professional tennis player who focuses only on the point at hand. He’ll probably lose half the points he plays, but he doesn’t allow himself to worry about whether or not he’s down a set. He must have confidence that by concentrating on the techniques he’s worked on in practice, the strengths in his game will prevail and he will be able to outlast his opponent.
The second principle of peak performance is confidence. in yourself, your methodology, and your ability to succeed. Some people are naturally born confident. Other people are able to translate success from another area in their life. Perhaps they were good in sports, music, or academics growing up. There’s also the old-fashioned “hard work” way of getting confidence. Begin by researching and developing different systems or methodologies. Put in the hours of backtesting. Tweak and modify the systems so as to make them your own. Study the charts until you’ve memorized every significant swing high or low. Self-confidence comes from developing a methodology that YOU believe in.
Concentrate on the technical conditions. Have a clear game plan. Don’t listen to CNBC, your broker, or a friend. You must do your own analysis and have confidence in your game plan to be a successful trader.
Analyze the markets when they are closed. Your job during the day is to monitor markets, execute trades and manage positions. Traders should be like fighter pilots – make quick decisions and have quick reflexes. Their plan of attack is already predetermined, yet they must be ready to abort their mission at any stage of the game.
Just as you should put winning out of your mind, so should you put losing out of your mind – quickly. A bad trade doesn’t mean you’ve blown your day. Get rid of the problem quickly and start making the money back. It’s like cheating on a diet. You can’t undo the damage that’s been done. However, it doesn’t mean you’ve blown your whole diet. Get back on track and you’ll do fine.
For that matter, the better you are able to eliminate emotions from your day, the better off you will be. A certain amount of detachment adds a healthy dose of objectivity.
Trading is a great business because the markets close at the end of the day (at least some of them). This gives you a zero point from which to begin the next day – a clean slate. Each day is a new day. Forget about how you did the week before. What counts is how you do today!
Sometimes what will happen during the day comes down to knowing yourself. Are you relaxed or distracted? Are you prepared or not? If you can’t trade that day, don’t! – and don’t overanalyze the reasons why or why not. Is psychoanalyzing your childhood going to help your trading? Nonsense!
The third important ingredient for achieving peak performance is attitude. Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in the markets. Attitude is also how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. Every professional has gone through long flat times. Slumps are inevitable for it’s impossible to stay on top of your game 100% of the time. Once you’ve dug yourself out of a hole, no matter how long it takes, you know that you can do it again. If you’ve done something once, it is a repeatable act. That knowledge is a powerful weapon and can make you a much stronger trader.
Good trades don’t always work out. A good trade is one that has the probabilities in its favor, but that doesn’t mean that it will always work out. People who have a background in game theory understand this well. The statistics are only meaningful when looking at a string of numbers. For example, in professional football, not every play is going to gain yardage. What percentage of games do you need to win in order to make the playoffs? It’s a number much smaller than most of us are willing to accept in our own win/loss ratios!
Here is an interesting question: should you look at a trade logically or psychologically? In other words, should every trade stand on its own merits? Theoretically, yes, but in real life it doesn’t always work that way. A trader is likely to manage a position differently depending on whether the previous trade was a winner or a loser.
How does one know when to take profits on a good trade? You must ask yourself first how greedy do you want to be, or, how much money do you want to make? And also, does your pattern have a “perceived profit” or objective level? Why is it that we hear successful winning traders complain far more about getting out of good trades too soon than not getting out of bad trades soon enough? There’s an old expression: “Profits are like eels, they slip away.”
Successful traders are very defensive of their capital. They are far more likely to exit a trade that doesn’t work right away than to give it the benefit of the doubt. The best trades work right away!

OK. Realistically, every trader has made a stubborn, big losing trade. What do you do if you’re really caught in a pickle? The first thing is to offer a “prayer to the Gods”. This means, immediately get rid of half your position. Cut down the size. Right off the bat you are taking action instead of freezing up. You are reducing your risk, and you have shifted the psychological balance to a win-win situation. If the market turns around, you still have part of your position on. If it continues against you, your loss will be more manageable. Usually, you will find that you wished you exited the whole position on the first order, but not everyone is able to do this.
At an annual Market Technician’s conference, a famous trader was speaking and someone in the audience asked him what he did when he had terrible losing trades. He replied that when his stomach began to hurt, he’d “puke them at the lows along with everyone else.” The point is, everyone makes mistakes but sooner or later you’re going to have to exit that nasty losing position.
“Feel good” trades help get one back in the game. It’s nice to start the day with a winning scalp. It tends to give you more breathing room on the next trade. The day’s psychology is shifted in your favor right away. This is also why it’s so important to get rid of losing trades the day before. so you don’t have to deal with them first thing in the morning. This is usually when the choice opportunity is and you want to be ready to take advantage of it.
A small profitable scalp is the easiest trade to make. The whole secret is to get in and get out of the market as quickly as possible. Enter in the direction of the market’s last thrust or impulse. The shorter the period of time you are is the marketplace, the easier it is to make a winning trade. Of course, this strategy of making a small scalp is not substantial enough to make a living, but remember the object is to start the day out on the right foot.
If you are following a methodology consistently (key word), and making money, how do you make more money? You must build up the number of units traded without increasing the leverage. In other words, don’t try going for the bigger trade, instead, trade more contracts. It just takes awhile to build up your account or the amount of capital under management. Proper leverage can be the key to your success and longevity in this business. Most traders who run into trouble have too big a trade on. Size influences your objectivity. Your main object should be to stay in the game.
Most people react differently when they’re under pressure. They tend to be more emotional or reactive. They tense up and judgement is often impaired. Many talented athletes can’t cut it because they choke when the pressure’s on. You could be a brilliant analyst but a lousy trader. Consistency is far more important than brilliance. Just strive for consistency in what you do and let go of the performance expectations.

Master the Game
The last key to achieving mental mastery over the game is believing that you can actually do it. Everyone is capable of being a successful trader if they truly believe they can be. You must believe in the power of belief. If you’re a recluse skeptic or self-doubter, begin by pretending to believe you can make it. Keep telling yourself that you’ll make it even if it takes you five years. If a person’s will is strong enough, they will always find a way.
If you admit to yourself that you truly don’t have the will to win at this game, don’t try to trade. It is too easy to lose too much money. Many people think that they’ll enjoy trading when they really don’t. It’s boring at times, lonely during the day, mentally trying, with little structure or security. The markets are not a logical or fair playing ground. But there are numerous inefficiencies and patterns ready to be exploited, and there always will be.

-By: Linda Bradford Raschke

Friday, November 30, 2012

Trading Patience & How To Use It to Improve Trading Results



Overtrading doesn’t just apply to opening a position; it also applies to closing positions.
Once you have done your analysis, and decided that a trade meets your criteria, if you decide to go for it you have to be able to “see it through,” unless it becomes a losing trade.
That’s why it is important to have predetermined stops when you open a position.
Remember the market doesn’t always move in straight lines, which means a winning trade might initially show a loss of a few cents before it continues in your direction.

Trading Patience and Professional Traders
Professional traders know that their emotions are going to affect their trading whether they like it or not.
As a result, they develop personalities that allow them to overcome their emotions and trade profitably.
Two of the most important personality traits are trading patience and discipline, because they allow you to handle one of the most difficult aspects of trading.
Possibly the most emotional time for a trader is when their PnL is negative, and they are waiting for their next trade to come along.
During this time they will lose there trading patience and they will be desperate to take their next trade in order to make back the money that they have lost.
Most new traders (and also some experienced traders) will lose there trading patience start taking trades that are not part of their trading system (known as making up a trade).
As soon as this happens, their loss will increase, and will continue to do so until they realize what they are doing and correct their behavior.
Trading Patience and discipline are vital personality traits for professional traders.
Having trading patience allows you to wait for your next trade regardless of your current profit/loss, and being disciplined allows you to take only trades that are part of your trading system (not making up a trade).
For some traders, the thought of losing money is enough to make them instantly patient and disciplined, but for others, the emotions are too strong, and they need to cultivate their patience and discipline.
One method of learning how to build trading patience and discipline is to keep a detailed log of every trade that you take.
At the end of the day, replay every trade, and compare the replayed trades to your trading log.
If there are any differences, you should be able to determine what caused them, and hopefully know what you need to avoid the next time.Another method of building trading patience and discipline is to have absolute confidence in your trading system.
Knowing that your trading system will make money over the long-term can be enough to overcome the negative emotions that occur when you are experiencing a loss.

The only way to have confidence in your trading system is to test the system thoroughly.
If you have tested your trading system over a significant length of time, and it is consistently profitable, there is no reason to question that it will continue to be profitable
Trading patience and discipline facilitate the trader becoming acclimated with the markets, knowing risk tolerance and developing a successful daytrading strategy.

I strongly believe that every aspiring Forex trader can benefit from simple psychological exercises. These can positively affect one’s mindset, improve their level of enjoyment, and most importantly – their profit margin

First thing every Forex trader who is looking to strengthen and improve his mental state should do is to decide on what he’s hoping to get out of it – or set some goals. Some Forex traders will aim to become able to always follow their entry rules, while others want to be able to stay patient and wait for the next setup if they miss their entry. Others will want to limit their risk exposure, while others will try to manage their trades by their exit strategy, rather than by guessing. In any case, the Forex trader will want to limit the effect of his emotions – the irrational part of his brain – have on his decision making and logic.

Once your goal is set, the best way to move forward is to design a strict set of rules you will follow in all of your Forex trades – and stick with it. In practice, the best way to go about this is to design a trading system and practice it for as many times as possible – while taking note of every trade that takes place. If you are able to do this, you will soon start to notice that the fear of losing and anxiety will have less and less effect on you – until one day, they are only a distant memory.




“The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.”
-  Jesse Livermore

One secret of success in life is for a man to be ready for his opportunity when it comes.  Benjamin Disraeli 

“You make money on Wall Street by being very selective and being patient, waiting for those opportunities that are irresistible, where the percentages are very heavily in your favor.”
- Seth Glickenhaus


Be Patient. Stay Disciplined.



Patience.
It's a virtue...Especially in trading.
Arnold H. Glasgow, an American humorist, once said, "The key to everything is patience. You get the chicken by hatching the egg, not by smashing it."
Developing your trading plan will take time. Developing skills will take time.
Waiting for the right trades requires patience. Entering and exiting a trade at the right moment requires patience.
Discipline.
Discipline is also a virtue, and it means doing the things you need to do to progress and get better....even if you don't want do it.
This means preparing for each trading day or week with research and chart study.
If you're a mechanical or automated trader, this means back testing systems and constantly trying different settings and strategies as the environment changes.
And of course, don't forget about keeping a trade journal and reviewing every single day you trade.
Journaling is the one trading task that separates the wannabe traders from the real deal traders. Unfortunately, most newbies won't do it.










Trading concepts and techniques are simple and easy to learn. What's hard to learn is how to be patient and disciplined to do the right things and make good trading decisions. Truthfully, it will be one of the most difficult endeavors you will ever take on.
To a newbie, sitting on the sidelines and watching the markets move while you wait for your best setups means you're missing out on profits.
This way of thinking leads to a failure of patience and discipline and causes some of the most notorious trading mistakes in the book:
  • Impulse trades
  • Letting losers run too long
  • Cutting winners too quickly
  • Revenge trades
These actions will kill your account!
Remember that your job as a newbie is to learn how to make good trading decisions and SURVIVE!

The best thing you can do to stay patient and disciplined is to look at your career as a trader as a marathon and NOT a sprint.
This is not an overnight, get-rich-quick scheme.
This is a commitment to build skills that will allow you to profitably trade in any environment the market will throw at you at any time.
And essentially, free you from the chains of the "Man." Fight the Power!!
If you stay patient, maintain discipline, and commit to constant improvement, then your results today as a forex noob will probably be nothing compared to the results of the trader you will become after years grinding it out in the markets.
Another thing....
Always remember that opportunities for good trades occur ALMOST EVERY SINGLE DAY!
No need to rush into bad trades. They will only set you back from reaching your goals.
Stick to your best ideas and setups, and if they don't come that session, just wait for the next.
Unless the world stops trading currencies (knock on wood) then there will always be opportunities around the corner.



"He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious.  
He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious."

Sun Tzu 

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

3 Types of Confidence




Three types of confidence among traders:

First, is what I call ‘false confidence’ That’s the person who talks big and poses like a big shot. This type of person often takes big risks in an effort to either impress others or to assuage their own discomfort, and the results can be terrible.

Next, there is temporary confidence, which is conditional on recent performance. This is the person whose self-esteem is tied to their account equity or P&L. When on a good run, they feel confident and take larger risks (often the prelude to giving it all back). And when performance is lousy they start grasping at anything, maybe exiting winners prematurely or taking on excessive risk to get their money back.




Finally, we have true confidence. This is confidence that does not depend on recent results. It is based on a deep sense of inner trust. This is the person who has a history of doing the right thing, regardless of the outcome. Doing the right thing in the sense that they act in their own best interest and trust and understand that doing such over time has a positive impact on results. The trust runs deep enough to provide resilience in the face of disappointment. This is true self-confidence, the kind you want in trading and in life.

Almost everyone says that discipline is a requirement to succeed in trading. But most people never talk what really underlies that type of discipline. The answer……true self-confidence.

Forex Trading is a Numbers Game



As a trader, you must realize that anything can happen in the markets. Without accepting this very essential fact, you will NEVER EVER become consistently profitable.
I know, I know, the idea just sounds silly! How can you, as a trader, become consistently profitable from a market that has uncertain outcomes? It's just not possible!
WRONG! In trading and in life, we have what are called PROBABILITIES.

Casinos are profitable year, after year, after year, despite having a business where the outcome of each card laid down, dice roll, or slot pull is unknown each and every time. They understand the concept of probabilities and create games that put the odds in their favor--in other words, "the house advantage." While it is true that there will be some lucky ones that will win and walk away with millions of dollars, casinos know that if they get a large enough sample size, there will be more losing patrons than winners in the end.

How exactly can you tilt the odds in your favor?







You can do this in a couple of ways.
First, you need to learn the market behaviors, patterns, and tendencies that could be recognized in the future and turned into a trading opportunities. This comes from reviewing price action against a framework (support and resistance, mechanical indicators, economic event, etc.), recording your observations, and then devising statistics to keep track of the different kinds of patterns or setups. This is where keep a trading journal becomes a necessity. Using the data from your journal, you can focus on the setups that have had higher probabilities of winning, rather than those setups that tend to lose.

Secondly, you need solid risk management. You can tilt the odds of long term success in your favor even more if you limit yourself to setting up or taking trades that have an attractive risk-management ratio (ie. average bigger wins than losses). The better the reward-to-risk ratio, the less often you need to win a trade.
For instance, if you notice that you are good in spotting double top formations and trading them, then you can devise a trading system that focuses on finding setups based on double top chart patterns. If you are able take a large enough number of these trades, and your winners are larger than your losers, then you'll eventually end up profitable over the long run!
And lastly, you can look to other traders in addition to your own analysis. The web is loaded with free economic and technical analysis content. By getting a second opinion, you make sure that you don't fall into the "confirmation bias" trap.
Of course, these aren't the only ways to tilt the odds in your favor. But you should always remember that you don't have to predict exactly where the market will go; you just have to figure out where price will likely go and make the best of it if the trade goes your way.